Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.016845 0.019081 0.021508 0.024337 0.027545 0.031073 0.035247
2025-07-20 0.013481 0.016589 0.020252 0.024892 0.030619 0.037465 0.046284
2025-07-27 0.011734 0.015283 0.019709 0.025644 0.033408 0.043242 0.056679
2025-08-03 0.010160 0.013858 0.018689 0.025474 0.034783 0.047146 0.064877
2025-08-10 0.009013 0.012794 0.017935 0.025453 0.036204 0.051081 0.073337
2025-08-17 0.007962 0.011712 0.016994 0.025002 0.036884 0.053943 0.080445
2025-08-24 0.007310 0.011108 0.016636 0.025298 0.038595 0.058344 0.090110
2025-08-31 0.006636 0.010391 0.016022 0.025119 0.039528 0.061609 0.098288
2025-09-07 0.006239 0.010048 0.015926 0.025697 0.041639 0.066802 0.109894
2025-09-14 0.005585 0.009233 0.015011 0.024875 0.041416 0.068251 0.115526
2025-09-21 0.005118 0.008674 0.014447 0.024558 0.041960 0.070942 0.123399
2025-09-28 0.004623 0.008021 0.013668 0.023798 0.041671 0.072184 0.128847
2025-10-05 0.004459 0.007925 0.013828 0.024681 0.044326 0.078735 0.144351
2025-10-12 0.004258 0.007746 0.013829 0.025284 0.046539 0.084708 0.159400
2025-10-19 0.004099 0.007627 0.013919 0.026046 0.049094 0.091491 0.176554
2025-10-26 0.003819 0.007258 0.013526 0.025873 0.049879 0.095057 0.187878
2025-11-02 0.003585 0.006957 0.013230 0.025852 0.050938 0.099209 0.200694
2025-11-09 0.003318 0.006567 0.012732 0.025394 0.051095 0.101611 0.210194
2025-11-16 0.003166 0.006389 0.012626 0.025695 0.052783 0.107158 0.226627
2025-11-23 0.002971 0.006109 0.012295 0.025513 0.053464 0.110716 0.239188
2025-11-30 0.002874 0.006019 0.012338 0.026100 0.055789 0.117835 0.260026
2025-12-07 0.002640 0.005626 0.011730 0.025265 0.055014 0.118371 0.266454
2025-12-14 0.002475 0.005365 0.011376 0.024943 0.055316 0.121220 0.278286